Atherosclerosis progression predicts cardiovascular events; however, progression of multiterritorial subclinical atherosclerosis is incompletely understood.

This study sought to study short-term progression of atherosclerosis using different noninvasive imaging techniques and their relationship with cardiovascular risk.

The study included 3,514 PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) study participants (45.7 ± 4.2 years of age; 63% men). Participants underwent 2-dimensional vascular ultrasound (2DVUS) of abdominal aorta, carotid, iliac, and femoral territories to determine a plaque number score; 3DVUS to quantify carotid and femoral plaque volume; and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) at baseline and 2.8 years later. The authors calculated the rate of new disease incidence and changes in disease extent. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations of progression rates with baseline cardiovascular risk factors and estimated 10-year risk.

Imaging detected short-term (3-year) atherosclerosis progression in 41.5% of participants (26.4% by 2DVUS, 21.3% by 3DVUS, and 11.5% by CACS), particularly in peripheral territories examined by vascular ultrasound. New atherosclerosis onset accounted for approximately one-third of total progression, also more frequently by 2DVUS and 3DVUS (29.1% and 16.6%, respectively), than by CACS (2.9%). Participants with baseline disease by all 3 modalities (n = 432) also showed significant atherosclerosis progression (median: 1 plaque [interquartile range (IQR): −1 to 3 plaques] by 2DVUS; 7.6 mm³ [IQR: −32.2 to 57.6 mm³] by 3DVUS; and 21.6 Agatston units [IQR: 4.8 to 62.6 Agatston units] by CACS). Age, sex, dyslipidemia, hypertension, smoking, and family history of premature cardiovascular disease contributed to progression, with dyslipidemia the strongest modifiable risk factor. Although disease progression correlated with cardiovascular risk, progression was detected in 36.5% of participants categorized as low risk.

With this multimodal and multiterritorial approach, the authors detected short-term progression of early subclinical atherosclerosis in a substantial proportion (41.5%) of apparently healthy middle-aged men and women, more frequently by peripheral 2D/3DVUS than by CACS. Disease progression, as defined in this study, correlated with almost all cardiovascular risk factors and estimated risk. (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis [PESA]; NCT01410318)